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Recipe for recession

Published Saturday, April 01, 2006

How much of a decline in the economy can we expect once freight services are negatively affected by widespread gridlock, continued driver shortages and an increase in unscheduled equipment downtime? If the inventory-to-sales ratio increases by 0.2, we could expect a rise in inventories somewhere in the vicinity of $150 billion to sustain the sales levels that we saw during the fourth quarter of 2005. I used a measure of private inventories to final sales, as published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, to reach this conclusion. But the change will be significant no matter what measure you ...

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